Commercial property insurer FM has released the FM Worldwide Hail Hazard Map, a global tool that categorizes hail risk into three zones, Moderate, Severe and Very Severe, based on the kinetic energy of hailstone impact rather than simply counting days with damaging hail.
The distinction matters because kinetic energy is the primary driver of structural damage, FM said. The map draws on more than 500,000 ground-based hail observations from international sources spanning 1955 to 2024, combined with satellite datasets and severe convective storm parameters developed from decades of meteorological research.
A Hazard Growing in Cost and Geographic Reach
Hail has become one of the fastest-growing contributors to property loss over the past decade, FM said, with damage commonly affecting roofs, facades, yard storage and roof-mounted equipment such as HVAC systems and solar panels. The scale of the problem in North America alone is substantial: NOAA’s archived data lists 203 severe storm events from 1980 to 2024 with total CPI-adjusted costs of roughly $514.4 billion, according to the source material.
South America presents a different kind of risk. Global climatology research cited in the source material identifies northern Argentina as a world hotspot for very large hail, defined as hailstones larger than 5 centimeters, followed by the tri-border region around Uruguay, Paraguay and southern Brazil. FM noted that global portfolios sometimes treat South American hail as an agricultural inconvenience rather than a property or business continuity hazard.
Europe is where the trend line for hail risk is moving most quickly, the insurer said. Research published in Nature Geoscience found that severe hailstorms are increasing most rapidly in Europe, with hotspots near mountain ranges in northeastern Spain, southwestern France and northern Italy. Italy’s 2023 hail incidents were highlighted as a case study in concentration risk, particularly for operations in the Po Valley and surrounding logistics and manufacturing corridors.
Australia’s Exposure Has Multiplied Since 1999
Australia’s hail vulnerability is well established, but the magnitude of today’s exposure has grown significantly since the last major benchmark event. The 1999 Sydney hailstorm produced AUD $1.70 billion (USD $1.2 billion) in insured losses, according to the Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub. The Insurance Council of Australia has estimated that an equivalent event today would generate approximately AUD $8.8 billion (USD $6.3 billion) in insured losses, based on changes in property values and density alone.
FM noted that Australia has installed more than 4 million rooftop solar systems in the past 25 years, most of them on properties that either did not exist or did not carry photovoltaic panels at the time of the 199 Sydney hailstorm. Solar modules are known to be vulnerable to large hail, meaning the damage profile of a repeat event would be significantly worse, FM said.
Standardization Across a Global Portfolio
One practical challenge the FM Worldwide Hail Hazard Map is designed to address is the inconsistency that arises when hail risk is assessed through local experience rather than uniform methodology.
“In Milan, a summer hail week now feels plausible; in Singapore it still feels like a curiosity; in Sydney, it’s an old story that can suddenly become new again,” said Mike Hunneyball, FM’s Melbourne-based operations chief engineer and hail expert.
FM’s map categorizes the three hazard zones using kinetic-energy thresholds aligned to established FM criteria, including a 15-year mean recurrence interval and assumed hail density. That framework applies equally to facilities in regions where hail is a familiar peril and those where it is not.
Stuart Keller, FM’s chief engineer, said the map is intended to help organizations “make informed, practical decisions to protect critical assets and strengthen resilience.” In markets where hail is rare, FM noted, buildings are typically not designed with hail impact in mind, the sort of low-frequency hazard that produces a surprise when it arrives, according to the source material.